Expect a mixed bag of surprises -- By Eugene Correia

No matter which political party comes to power, Goans must hope that the winning party will serve its goal in giving good governance to the people. If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bounces back to rule Goa, it will not necessarily mean that the people have reposed their faith in the party.  It could be that BJP squeezed through because the non-BJP votes were divided among the other parties and independents. Overall, the BJP has failed on its promise of good governance. It’s unlikely any party will get the required two-third majority and, perceptively, will have to seek alliances.

Prior to the elections, there was a mad rush to form mahagathbandhan between some parties, particularly a tie-up between Indian National Congress (INC) and Goa Forward Party (GFP), the latter which came about from Congress dissenter, Vijai Sardesai. It never happened because of several barriers, and the Congress went ahead and fielded a candidate in Fatorda. In this fracas, the BJP candidate, Damodar (Damu) Naik, could come up trumps.

The GFP was born out of “revenge politics”. In avenging the denial of ticket by the Congress in the 2012 elections, Sardesai rode the sympathy wave to defeat Damu. Though he performed well in the assembly, Sardesai’s harping on the vague concept of Goenkarponn may not solely win him votes, though it may have won him accolades. This time should be a close-call for either one, as Damu has been Fatorda’s representative for three times.

One may never know what provoked Congress to take on the two warhorses. It’s hard to believe that BJP and Congress stuck a deal to derail Sardesai’s chances.  Did Parrikar and Faleiro sat in each other’s laps? Maybe there were wheels within wheels. As everyone knows, politics makes strange bedfellows.

Think of what has happened in Panaji, where Congress has not fielded a candidate but supports Atanasio J. Monserrate, who was expelled from the Congress, and formed United Goans Party (UGP) when his overtures to the United Goans Democratic Party (UDGP) weren’t entertained. Shockingly, his wife, Jennifer Monserrate, is seeking re-election from Taleigao on the same Congress ticket. It throws up the question if Atanasio (Babush) will be re-admitted into the Congress if he wins the coveted Panaji seat, which is counted as a formidable BJP stronghold.

The BJP incumbent in Panaji, Sidharth Sripad Kuncalienker, is in the fray but his

prospects of pulling off a victory over both Monserrate and Ketan Bhatlikar, the latter fielded by Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), a party floated by expelled RSS boss, Prof. Subhash Velingkar. Kuncaliker won the bye-poll as he was Parrikar’s staffer before Parrrikar was summoned to Delhi. Isn’t there a special friendship between Babush and Parrikar? What seems the gameplay here? BJP boss, Amit Shah, has hinted that Parrikar will manage Goa, and this either could be by remote-control or physically moving to take up charge of government if BJP captures Goa again.

The Monserrates are straddling two stools, and it seems Atanasio has also kept his previous constituency, Santa Cruz, safe by getting his friend, Antonio (Tony) Caetano Fernandes, to run on the Congress ticket. There’s no doubt that Atanasio is a king-maker and his writ runs in the triangle of these three constituencies because of his muscle and money power. More than any diligent work for the people, Atanasio has a track record for amassing ill-gotten wealth and a long list of police records for nefarious activities.                                     Atanasio’s rise in politics runs parallel to another strongman, Churchill Alemao who, however, has longer years in the corridors of power. Now trying his luck in Benaulim, where his daughter, Valanka, was beaten by Caetano (Caitu) Silva, Churchill is a never-say-die fighter in Goan politics. Denied a Congress ticket for serving jail in the Louis Berger bribery case, Churchill is trying his luck on a Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) ticket.

Remember, Churchill embraced the Tirnamool Congress (TMC) party for his unsuccessful parliamentary run at the behest of the late Dr. Wifred D’Souza. With Silva having got a recent boost with the Union Home Ministry declaring him an Indian citizen, as the sword was hanging over his head since his astounding win in the last elections, following which a case was filed on his national status, he could have gained in stature as the saviour of thousands of Goans who have their births registered in Lisbon. Caitu can feel assured that his citizenship victory, can translate into bring him back to the assembly. This part of Salcete has seen has seen a lot of exodus out of Goa on Portuguese passports.

Whatever the hidden agenda between the two kumpars, Churchill has conceded Navelim to Luizinho Faleiro, who was soundly defeated by Churchill in what is one of the greatest and best wrestle-mania-type fight between the two. So much so, Luizinho abandoned Goa for long and stayed aloof from Goan politics. When it seemed Luizinho has given up his assembly ambitions, he’s back in the thick of the electoral arena on the lame excuse that friends wanted him to contest again.

In the new chapter of their relationship, it suits Churchill to move away from his nemesis, Avertano Feranandes, who inflicted humiliating defeat on the former CM, and leave Luizinho to his former stomping ground. A win is crucial for Luizinho to re-ignite his political future. If Congress wins, and if both Digamber and Luizinho come back roaring, one can expect a tug-of-war for the chief ministership.

Eugene Correia is a senior journalist.

I have avoided Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as it’s a new player in Goan politics. However, the party can’t be ruled out to make an impact in the electoral politics. One cannot brush aside its victory in Delhi over favourites Congress and the BJP. The party is also making waves in Punjab. If the party bags a few seats, it can play the role of a broker. The post-poll scenario is likely to be as messy as the pre-election scenario was. If I have to make a political forecast, March 11 will spring a mixed-bag of surprises.